Developing an Agent-based Model for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Malaria Interventions in Nanyumbu and Masasi Districts, Tanzania
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Date
2024-11-28
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Indian Journal of Science and Technology
Abstract
Objective : Agent-based models and simulation (ABMS) can be utilized to
understand the dynamism of transmission and the effect of interventions.
We evaluated using ABMS, the efficacy of insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) at
different coverage levels and quality of houses for control of malaria in Masasi
and Nanyumbu districts, Tanzania. Methods: The model was developed and
simulated in Anylogic software with mosquitoes, humans, and the environment
along with their attributes as agents. Using field data, buildings of different
qualities were created to be human environment, and ITN use was assigned
to respective human agents. Shapefiles were imported into the built-in global
imaging system map in Anylogic for better placement of buildings using their
coordinates, and coordinates of streams extracted from the study area map
were used to allocate the aquatic environment of the mosquito agents. ITNs
coverage scenarios of 16%, 40%, 64%, and 80% were simulated. The model
was simulated for 90-day period and a model time-step was set to a day. The
primary outcome was the prevalence of human agents with malaria infection
at the end of the 90-day simulation period. Results: At the end of the 90-day
simulation period and initial ITNs coverage of 16% (257/1607), the prevalence
of malaria infection was 15.4% (248/1607). When the coverage was increased
to 40%, 64%, and 80% malaria prevalence declined to 15.1% (242/1607), 14.1%
(227/1607), and 13.9% (223/1607), respectively. ABMS clearly indicated that an
increase in ITNs coverage was associated with a decline in the prevalence of
infected humans and mosquito population in consistency with the field data.
Novelty: This work is unique in a sense that it incorporated the data on house
quality which has direct impact in malaria transmission.
Keywords: Agent based model; Anylogic; ITN coverage; Malaria control;
Public health
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Keywords
Agent based model, Anylogic, ITN coverage
Citation
Mfala, C., Nyambo, D., Mwaiswelo, R., Mmbando, B. and Clemen, T., 2024. Developing an Agent-based Model for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Malaria Interventions in Nanyumbu and Masasi Districts, Tanzania.Indian Journal of Science and Technology