The impact of China’s lockdown policy on the incidence of CoVID-19: an interrupted time series analysis.

Mashalla, Yohana J.

The impact of China’s lockdown policy on the incidence of CoVID-19: an interrupted time series analysis.

dc.contributor.author	Mashalla, Yohana J.
dc.date.accessioned	2021-10-26T12:25:26Z
dc.date.available	2021-10-26T12:25:26Z
dc.date.issued	2021-10-28
dc.description.abstract	Background Policy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). China imposed strict restrictions on movement on January 23rd, 2020.Interrupted time series methods were used to study the impact of the lockdown on the incidence of COVID-19. Methods The number of cases of COVID-19 reported daily from January 12thto March 30th, 2020 were extracted from the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 dashboard ArcGIS® and matched to China’s projected population of 1 408 526 449 for 2020 in order to estimate daily incidences. Data were plotted to reflect daily incidences as data points in the series. A deferred interruption point of 6thFebruary was used to allow a 14-day period of diffusion. The magnitude of change and linear trend analyses were evaluated using the itsafunction with ordinary least-squares regression coefficients in Stata® yielding Newey-West standard errors. Results Seventy-eight (78) daily incidence points were used for the analysis, with 11(14.10%) before the intervention. There was a daily increase of 163 cases (β=1.1610-07, p=0.00) in the pre-intervention period. Although there was no statistically significant drop in the number of cases reported daily in the immediate period following 6thFebruary 2020 when compared to the counterfactual (p=0.832), there was a 241 decrease (β=-1.7110-07, p=0.00) in cases reported daily when comparing the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods. A deceleration of 78(47%) cases reported daily. Conclusion The lockdown policy managed to significantly decrease the incidence of CoVID-19 in China. Lockdown provides an effective means of curtailing the incidence of COVID-19.	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Molefi, M., Tlhakanelo, J., Phologolo, T., Hamda, S.G., Masupe, T., Tsima, B., Setlhare, V., Mashalla, Y. and Wiebe, D., 2020. The impact of China’s lockdown policy on the incidence of CoVID-19: An Interrupted time series analysis.	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-32944/v1
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/806
dc.language.iso	en	en_US
dc.publisher	Researchsquare.com	en_US
dc.subject	Lockdown policy	en_US
dc.subject	COVID-19	en_US
dc.subject	China	en_US
dc.title	The impact of China’s lockdown policy on the incidence of CoVID-19: an interrupted time series analysis.	en_US
dc.type	Article	en_US